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Here’s how badly Democrats have to screw up to lose the election


Earlier this spring, Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Florida) pollster publicly laid out a potentially harsh truth: By his calculations, the eventual Republican nominee would need to capture 40% of the Latino vote in order to win in 2016.

“Un­less you count on the Re­pub­lic­an getting Ron­ald Re­agan-like num­bers among whites, you’re go­ing to have to be some­where in the mid-forties with Hispanics,” Whit Ayres said, according to the National Journal.

Though somewhat shocking in its candor — former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) carried just 23% of the Latino vote in 2012 — Ayres’ comment emphasized what the Republican establishment has known for some time.

In a now infamous Republican “autopsy” report after the 2012 election, the Republican National Committee declared that the party needed to make significant inroads among Latinos — one of the largest and fastest-growing demographics in the US — if it hoped to be competitive in future elections. The party’s standing with the bloc had crumbled since President George W. Bush carried 44% of the Latino vote in 2004.

But now, with Latinos rebuking Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump’s inflammatory comments about immigrants, the goal appears further from reach.

Indeed, an extensive new report from the left-leaning Center for American Progress (CAP) lays out just how steep a climb the Republican nominee will face next November.


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